IAB raises its 2026 US advertising growth forecast

What changed

IAB published an updated US advertising-spend outlook on 10 September 2026, raising projected growth for the year from January's 9.5% to 12.3%. Its research draws on more than 200 brand and agency buyers. The September channel outlook includes growth projections of 16.5% for social, 15.6% for connected television, 13.6% for commerce media and 8.1% for paid search.

These figures describe a forecast of market spending. They are not audited revenue totals, a forecast for every advertiser, or evidence that increasing a particular campaign's budget will improve its return. The channel definitions and the US scope matter when comparing the figures with a client's own planning categories or with research covering other markets.

For a planning discussion, use the outlook to identify questions rather than to copy a market allocation. If the wider market expects faster growth in a channel, ask whether the business has the creative, measurement and commercial capacity to compete there. An increase in total spending can reflect demand, pricing or changing participation; it does not establish the marginal value of the next pound in an individual account.

Keep a separate record of the company's own assumptions. Document the outcomes a proposed investment is meant to deliver, the constraints on testing and the evidence required to expand it. That gives stakeholders a way to compare a broad market narrative with observed customer acquisition, retention or sales outcomes. A headline growth rate should not substitute for those decisions.

The report is included as industry context in Week 37. IAB is the official source, and the accompanying table should be read with the original research. Where a planning presentation uses these figures, label them as September 2026 forecasts for the US and retain the source date. Comparing successive outlooks can show how expectations changed, while leaving actual business performance to be evaluated from the business's own data.

Why it matters for advertisers

IAB's September outlook raises its projected 2026 US advertising growth to 12.3%, up from 9.5% in January. The forecast draws on more than 200 brand and agency buyers and offers planning context across channels.